Thin sunlight, short days, and that itch of cold signal a fast turn. The Old Farmer’s Almanac shares a holiday snapshot for travelers and hosts. It still leaves room for surprises about where first flakes may appear. As Thanksgiving nears, one question sharpens. When will winter announce itself, and where will the first measurable snow land? Keep plans flexible, because timing often turns on a single fast-moving disturbance. Stay ready, not rigid.
Sun east, rain west: holiday setup
The Old Farmer’s Almanac frames the week with a clear split: sunshine dominates much of the East, the West trends rainy, and a narrow northern corridor picks up limited snow from New England into the Upper Midwest. For Thanksgiving, that setup looks bright in many eastern cities, though seasonably brisk.
In Pennsylvania, the Appalachians, and Lower Lakes, the Almanac pairs sun with colder-than-average air and lower-than-average precipitation. The pattern may allow light snow to pass through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before the holiday window, yet signals keep things settled over the long weekend, favoring dry hours between gatherings.
Along New Jersey, Delaware, and the Atlantic Corridor, temperatures slip from mild early to truly chilly by the holiday. Skies, however, stay bright and dry. The Almanac points to pleasant travel conditions, so widespread rain or snow delays look unlikely, even as coats and gloves become the smarter packing choice.
Roads, skies, and timing for Thanksgiving week
Thanksgiving 2025 lands on Thursday, November 27, shaping one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. AAA expects the vast majority to go by car, about 89 percent, while roughly 7 percent will fly. Because schedules compress into a narrow window, small weather shifts can ripple through routes quickly.
For drivers along the Atlantic Corridor and much of the Northeast, signals suggest bright, dry hours and fewer weather-driven snags. Farther west, wetter systems can slow mountain passes and urban corridors, especially where rain turns briefly slushy at higher elevations. Airports respond similarly, since visibility and crosswinds dictate spacing.
Because light snow may brush the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley before the holiday window, flexible departure times remain a useful buffer. Leave early when possible, then build margin around peak hours. Conditions still favor smooth trips, yet that extra cushion protects plans if a quick band crosses interstates.
Pennsylvania’s winter 2025–26 pattern at a glance
The Old Farmer’s Almanac frames the season as mild, punctuated by pockets of wild. Pennsylvania breaks from that theme: colder than usual, with a split snow story, lighter across the north and heavier through the south. The setup shapes heating needs, travel planning, and school calendars well beyond the holiday.
Below-normal temperatures accompany that outlook, with the coldest spells signaled for :
- mid-December,
- late December,
- early January,
- late January,
- and early February.
These windows guide wardrobe choices and event logistics, since the sharper drops tend to tighten daytime highs and extend overnight freezes, especially where winds funnel down valleys.
Precipitation trends below normal, which translates into lighter snowfall; timing still matters. The Almanac highlights late December, late January, early February, late February, and mid-March as the most likely windows for events. Plan winter gear and commutes with those clusters in mind, while Thanksgiving remains the calmer pivot between seasons.
First measurable snow: dates and benchmarks you can use
Climatology anchors expectations: first measurable snow can arrive early in the Northeast. The Northeast Regional Climate Center notes late-September starts in parts of Vermont and Maine. Near Lake Erie, the earliest has come during the first week of October, while most areas average from October into late December.
Average first measurable snow dates help set the baseline:
- Erie, November 9;
- Pittsburgh, November 16;
- Allentown, December 6;
- New York’s Kennedy Airport, December 9;
- Newark, December 9;
- Wilmington, December 17;
- Philadelphia, December 19.
Urban heat, elevation, and lake influence shape these differences, which can shift by storms only days apart.
Those benchmarks guide expectations, because an earlier-than-average start changes road salt needs and footwear choices. For late fall travelers, dates provide helpful context without promising an exact day. Around Thanksgiving, the odds remain region-dependent: lake belts can run ahead, while coastal cities often wait until December for the first accumulation.
How much snow to expect into Thanksgiving and the heart of winter
Across Pennsylvania, precipitation skews below normal this season, translating into below-normal snowfall, according to the Almanac. The Pittsburgh area may break from that trend as a notable outlier, with locally higher totals possible. Terrain and storm tracks often explain such exceptions, since small path shifts can magnify lake-enhanced bands.
Climatology sketches the spread, based on PAWeatherAction.com: Philadelphia sees eighteen to twenty-four inches, the Poconos roughly thirty-six to forty-two inches, and the snow belts near Erie one hundred ten to one hundred forty inches. These ranges showcase elevation, lake influence, and latitude working together across short geographic distances.
Recent history adds context, with the National Weather Service listing 2024–2025 totals as Erie 109.9 inches, Pittsburgh 30.4 inches, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton 27.8 inches, Allentown 17.8 inches, and Philadelphia 8.1 inches. The spread underscores local patterns; trips around Thanksgiving may feel mild in cities, while lake belts bank deeper seasonal snow.
What to remember as winter edges into view
Winter edges closer, yet the signals suggest calm, bright hours for many, even as colder air settles in. Pack layers and build small buffers into routes; trips stay smooth when timing flexes with quick changes. Watch lake belts and higher passes, because brief bursts can arrive ahead of the weekend. For hosts, plan indoor warmth and simple backup options. As Thanksgiving approaches, keep eyes on short-term updates, trust your baselines, and leave room for the season’s first surprise.